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This meter indicates how close we are to Artificial General Intelligence, it is calculated based on the recent events, predictions from experts and other indicators.
The current meter uses best current prediction. It is not a scientific measurement, a probability, or a countdown to a confirmed arrival date.
AGI broadly refers to AI with general capabilities across many different tasks. Definitions vary, as do the forecasts below. A higher clock reading represents a more advanced position on the illustrative scale.
Different definitions. Different timelines. One extraordinary question.
One destination. A whole spectrum of predictions.
Historical forecasts, preserved as originally collected. Dates may have passed and views may have changed. These are individual predictions, not a consensus.